Alabama Updated Unemployment Forecast: 31%

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COVID-19 is first and foremost a human health crisis, it has become one of the biggest economic crises our country has seen.

Note: The forecast doesn’t try to anticipate when the unemployment rates will reach these levels and does not attempt to forecast economic stimulus measures aside from those already in place.

Kansas
In KS, roughly 19% percent of the workforce has filed for unemployment in the last two months. MoneyGeek expects the employment situation to worsen in Kansas and in Hutchinson, but we don’t have concrete data specific to Hutchinson — only the whole state. The Bureau of Labor Statistics only releases hard data on the biggest 5 metro areas in Kansas.

Our forecast for Kansas, indicates that at its peak, unemployment will be 31 percent or about 469,900 workers. The forecast indicates that lost jobs in Kansas will and have predominantly come from Service-Providing jobs: We estimate that around 331k lost jobs will come from this sector and it includes lost jobs in Retail Trade (-70k), Leisure and Hospitality (- 71k), Healthcare (-38k lost jobs). We also estimate that around 102,000 jobs will be lost in trade/transportation/utilities sector.

Why Healthcare Job Losses
There are a number of reasons why we are forecasting job losses in the healthcare industry right now. First and foremost, healthcare is bigger than just hospitals. It’s local doctors offices including dentists, pediatricians, and opthamologists. In addition healthcare includes home health aides who help people in their homes as well. Many of these jobs have been lost or furloughed as offices close. Second, elective procedures have generally halted which is a big portion of revenue for hospitals and outpatient clinics.

Here’s what people can do about it:
File for unemployment, MoneyGeek’s Kansas page provides links to the Kansas Dept of Labor to file unemployment.
Assess the assets you have — what money might be available to you? If you have savings, how accessible are they to you? Do you have a tax refund coming? The deadline has been extended to July, so if you haven’t already filed, do so.
Look for ways to cut your spending. Take a look at your recurring expenses for opportunities to lower your costs. MoneyGeek has resources that can help you refinance your mortgage or lower your spending on auto insurance.
Look for a job.
Contact your creditors and let them know about your situation. For example, federally backed mortgages (about 75% of all mortgages) are eligible for forbearances and a moratorium on evictions in federally funded housing has been enacted. You may be able to get help from your credit card companies or other creditors as well.
Reach out for help in your community. It’s a challenging time and we’re all in this together. MoneyGeek has provided some community resources to food banks, food pantries, social services, and emergency services on our Kansas COVID-19 page.

About the Forecast:
Our forecast uses an aggregation of national unemployment forecasts from prominent economists and then projects local area unemployment based on the sectors and industries that are represented in the area. For example, an area’s economy that has a higher than average rate of hospitality related jobs will be forecasted to have higher levels of unemployment than elsewhere because our forecast model indicates that this is an area of the economy with many lost jobs.

Our national level forecast based on aggregation of economist forecasts is for 25 to 27 percent unemployment. The forecast doesn’t try to anticipate when the unemployment rates will reach these levels and does not attempt to forecast economic stimulus measures aside from those already in place.

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“MoneyGeek’s resource guide for unemployment and lost wages lists each state’s unemployment office so that you can quickly find where to make a claim”

“We made this tracker to help people get information about their local economies and to support people struggling with the economic impacts of COVID-19. As a company our mission is to help people make better financial decisions and the tracker is how we think we can help during this time.”

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