State of the Election
What is the current state of the election?
The state of the election will change daily. Depending on shifting demographics, early voting, the campaign events by each candidate, and other factors, campaigning right up until and on election day matters. (i.e., Trump in Michigan in 2016).
Early voting will have a substantial impact, but Democrats are concerned with two aspects. First, the number of voters that Democrats registered and requested mail-in/absentee ballots is not providing as large of a gap as hoped. Second, in several key states where early voting is underway, Republicans are doing much better than expected and the Democrats lead in several states is dwindling.
In the last 5 days, both campaigns are going to reassess daily, and as we get closer to Nov 3rd, will look at the path to victory hourly. In some instances the campaigns will see information and data that suggests they might possibly win a state that was unattainable at an earlier point in the campaign.
The Trump factor as we called it in 2016, or the silent Trump voter, is real and will have an impact on this election. This is a factor that no pollster can predict.
The intensity of each sides voters is paramount to who ultimately wins. This is exactly why the polls are wrong at this moment. Polls try to capture data based on past voting history or other trends. But they are predictive which means they are not exact.
The closer we get to election day the closer the polls will tighten. Both campaigns are doing “daily” tracking polls (called brushfires) to see if anything is changing in voter attitudes or positions. Polling is still a critical issue and is a great point of debate and analysis.
At this stage knowing what we learned in 2016 along with breaking down the demographic groups, early voting numbers by state, and other factors will show us Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes or more.
Two key battleground states to watch – NC and AZ. More than most these two states represent the pulse of American voters, changes in the electorate from 2016, and insight to how voters are thinking in terms of 2020.
I can speak to what happens during these last 8 days and offer considerable insights as to specifically what the Trump campaign will do, what it is looking for, and how that will change the campaign’s strategy.
Obama’s Impact on the Election
In 2016, Obama’s tepid campaign for Clinton had virtually no impact with key demographics.
There are numerous parallels that can be drawn from the former president’s involvement in 2016 and now 2020.
Voters are not voting for Obama and they know it. Yet Biden’s team is worried about key demographics including blacks, latinos, and young voters which is precisely where the election slipped away from Clinton in 2016.
Obama is protesting against Trump rather than campaigning for Biden. This is important distinction because Obama is more concerned by his legacy than driving votes to Biden. But without a Biden victory Obama’s legacy is history.
Bringing back Obama is a dangerous and calculated risk that likely will not result in expected reward. I analyze the impact of Obama’s involvement and why Trump was not worried about it in 201, and why that same logic might work even better in 2020.
Biden / Ukraine
This will continue to remain a relevant topic through Election Day. Key points on this issue:
There is a substantial amount of additional information relating to the Biden-Ukraine- China business scandals that continues to develop.
Biden is still forced to address the issue along the campaign trail. And Trump will continue to make it a center-piece of his rally speeches into election day.
Trump is trying to draw parallels from 2016 with Clinton, and show how Biden is no different.
More information is coming out of Ukraine in particular about how Hunter was appointed to the Burisma board, as emails among Hunter and his associates, clearly demonstrate that the former VP Biden was used to specifically influence the investigation into Burisma by the Ukrainian government.
There are other former U.S. officials including Amos Hochstein, who is a close adviser to Joe Biden, served as a Special Envoy at the State Department for energy affairs, was nominated as the Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, and most recently served as a board member of Naftogaz, the Ukrainian government controlled natural gas regulator. He recently resigned all of his positions in the wake of the Joe and Hunter Biden scandal. But he has yet to be questioned or mentioned.
All of the dots have not been connected yet and this business scandal also goes to the highest level of the Ukrainian government.
Comparison of Biden Scandal (vs. Mueller Probe) and Is It Enough to Sway Voters?
As new information is revealed and a host of actions are taken by lawmakers, the media and corporations, the comparison of this event to the Mueller probe is generating wide attention.
The treatment of the Biden scandals by the media, lawmakers, law enforcement, and big tech companies is a complete contrast to the Mueller probe and the attempt to remove an elected president.
The contrast between the way these two issues have been handled could hardly be more stark or disturbing. And the continued censorship by big tech companies has actually created a massive showdown with Congress over the future of these companies.
The president’s anger over his treatment in the last three years compared to that of how the Biden’s are being treated at this moment is driving his rally rhetoric.
Biden’s campaign is downplaying these issues. And while Trump is emphasizing Biden’s conduct, will it have the intended impact with voters Trump is hoping.