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Larry Tracy

The Three C’s of The 2020 Election: Counting, Counties and Coattails

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Larry Tracy 7/20/2021
The Three C’s of The 2020 Election:
                   Counting, Counties and Coattails   
                                  By Larry Tracy
                              Colonel, US Army (Ret.)
 
Democrats in 2016 and Republicans in 2020 each accused the other of illegal activity to explain  losses by their presidential candidates. .Democrats maintained Hillary Clinton lost because of Russian interference. This charge was based on apparently solid information of collusion between Russia and  Trump  that was provided by former British intelligent agent   Christopher Steele. His “Dossier” was used by the FBI  to launch an investigation of the Trump presidency leading to the Mueller commission.That accusation has now fallen apart:  Steele’s key source has testified under oath that  the defamatory information  he passed to Steele was false.
Republicans claimed Trump lost because of voter fraud. People went to bed  Election night with Trump enjoying a comfortable lead. When they awoke, Biden had won. The terms “conspiracy theories” and “baseless”were coined by Democrats and the media to reject Republican claims of voter fraud.  Here are  just three of the reasons Republicans believe Trump won.
Counting
With Trump winning late on November 3rd, counting was halted in major urban areas, and observers sent home. Video evidence showed counting then resumed.Thousands of mail-in ballots were counted which had no creases, indicating they had not been placed in an envelope, an integral part of the mail-in ballot process.If there was cheating by the Democrats, it was done skillfully and surgically. A post vote analysis of the election showed that of the 150 million votes cast, a shift of only 42, 000  in four battle ground states would have caused  an Electoral College tie, resulting in Trump’s election by the Republican-controlled House..
Counties
 
Micro level : There are nineteen bell weather counties in the US that for forty years (1976-2016) have had a 100% accuracy in predicting the winner of the presidential vote. . In 2020, Trump won eighteen of these counties by an average of fifteen points. Biden won  one, by 3 points.
Macro level: Trump won 80% of the counties in the United States. Biden did, of course,  win the large urban areas. So did Hillary Clinton. Her 1.9 million plurality in 2016 was due entirely to the cities of New York and Los Angeles. This may mean the Unites State is no longer “United.” We are now two countries, one urban, one rural.
Coattails
 
When a presidential candidate garners a large number of votes, he almost always has “coattails” that bring more members of his party into Congress.  Not so with Biden in 2020.  The Democrats  lost so many seats Pelosi now has the smallest majority in about a century.  Republicans need to flip only five seats to gain control in 2022.
Request
 
In closing, may I request Democrat readers to engage in a mental exercise.  Imagine Trump had won the election, while losing 80% of the counties, including those  predictive bell weather counties. Imagine as well  a Trump victory,  but Nancy Pelosi gains a larger  majority. Would you willingly accept that outcome, or would you embrace  a “conspiracy theory” that there was voter fraud?
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Larry Tracy

Larry Tracy 8/11/2022

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Larry Tracy 7/20/2021
I guess the “raid” takes precedence today.Why did they do it? What were they looking for? (A possibility being floated is  that it was done looking for information implicating the FBI in illegal acts in the early days of the Trump administration-russian collusion.)
Other subjects: IRS agents being hired ready to use force, according to a “Help wanted” ad now deleted; Is s the Inflation reduction act going to do that? What about your state’s  pro-abortion vote? Admin. has just approved 1 Billion in military aid for Ukraine. Will Ukraine’s counter offensive succeed?
We live in interesting times.
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Larry Tracy

Larry Tracy 8/1/2022

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Larry Tracy 7/20/2021
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Larry Tracy

Larry Tracy 7/28/2022

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Larry Tracy 7/20/2021
Some ideas for today:
US Intel says Russians have suffered 75,000, casualties
Impact of HIMARS in UkraINE, AND REQUST FOR FIGHTER JETS
The  “Inflation reduction” act: Manchin caves. Will Sinema?
RNC says  it will not pay Trumps legal bills if he declares for 2024. Will he listen?
…AND ANYTHING ELSE!
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