What are you seeing so far as the voters go the polls?
- The election is going to be close. Early voting numbers are disguising several important points to look for on election day. Mail-in ballot numbers are misleading as are early in-person votes. Neither is capturing the actual vote count.
- This is why you are seeing the polling data tighten in the last 24 hours and why Joe Biden’s lead has faded.
- There is a major category being overlooked in early voting numbers. “No Political Affiliation” (or NPA) is showing large percentages of the vote and no one can determine who is receiving these votes.
- Unless either candidate sees a blow-out, do not expect a decision on election night. The added days given to count mail-in votes in key states including MI, WI, NC & PA will delay the announcement of a winner.
What are the key states to watch for on election night?
- In 2016 a few of us on Trump’s campaign saw the state-by-state breakdown of polling numbers and other factors. Two days before election day we knew we were going to win. On election day by 500pm it appeared Trump had lost after initial exit polls came out. But voting across the country had not finished and these indicators were grossly wrong. Be leery of early predictions.
- In 2020, watch for AZ and NC. There are two states that will give Americans a great perspective into who will win the election.
- Other states to watch – IA and TX (look for turnout). If these two states show higher Republican turnout then Biden is in trouble. Today polls are now showing Trump leading in both states after trailing for much of the last few weeks. Democrats thought these were going to possibly be pick-up states.
What should voters be looking for on election day to figure out who will win?
- Donald Trump’s intensity / enthusiasm is higher than it was in 2016. Based on the crowd sizes and the lines at his rallies, his voter turnout will be unparalleled.
- Trump has done 17 campaign events in 8 states in 3 days. Biden has done 7 events in 5 states.
- If the Republican intensity holds Trump will win and defy the polls again. If that segment of voters does not come out, and the intensity did not move them to vote Biden will win.
The LOWE-Down!
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